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Inflation Scorecard: Currencies Extend Gains Vs. Gold
Written by Brad Zigler   
July 30, 2010 12:00 am EDT
Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -1.6%

Reserve currencies continued to take ground from gold this week. Sterling appreciated 4.1 percent against bullion while the euro rose 3.2 percent. Both the yen and the Swiss franc climbed 1.2 percent.

For the week ending Thursday, key U.S. dollar indicators included:

 

  • The London morning gold fix falling 1.8 percent to $1,166 after averaging $1,180; mean COMEX spot settlements were $1,172 and closed out the week 2.3 percent lower at $1,168; COMEX gold's average daily volume rocketed 77.7 percent higher to 302,368 contracts while open interest tumbled by 20,690 contracts to 538,172; COMEX gold inventories decreased by 28,876 ounces, leaving 11.085 million ounces to cover 20.6 percent of open interest.

 

  • Three-month London gold lease rates spiking 7 basis points (0.07 percent) higher.

 

  • Bullion assets of the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD) sinking by 25.9 tonnes, or 2.0 percent, to 1,282.3 tonnes.

 

  • The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDXJ), down 0.2 percent, continuing to outperform the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDX), which lost 3.0 percent; a 0.7 percent gain in the S&P 500 Composite dropped the blue chip benchmark's correlation to GDX to 49 percent while its correlation to bullion fell to 17 percent.

 

  • NYMEX WTI crude oil prices slipping 1.2 percent to $78.36; the gold/oil multiple declined to 14.9x.

 

  • Yields on three-month Treasury bills remaining flat at 15 basis points while Libor eased another 3 points; the TED spread—the cost of interbank lending—fell to 32 basis points.

 

  • The cost of money embedded in the COMEX gold futures term structure falling to a 33 basis point discount to one-year Treasurys.

 

  • A reversal in long bond yields; rates rose 13 basis points, steepening the yield curve to 393 points.

 

  • The euro gaining 1.4 percent against the greenback; finishing at $1.3002, cross rates averaged $1.2943.

 

  • The monetary disinflation rate ticking down -1.7 percent from last week's -1.6 percent average; at today's rate, the real return on three-month Treasury bills is 175 basis points.

 

Real Return On Three-Month Treasury Bills

Real Return On Three-Month Treasury Bills

 

 

 

 

 



 

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