If you were a hard asset investor last year, you'd have been better off owning equity interests in producers and processors rather than the commodities themselves. In 2009, for example, the Market Vectors RVE Hard Assets Producers ETF (NYSE Arca: HAP)—an index-based portfolio comprising more than 300 global firms' stocks in the energy, agriculture, metals and forest products sectors—racked up a 41.5 percent gain, grossly outperforming the GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund (NYSE Arca: GCC). GCC, which tracks an equal-weighted index of 17 U.S.-traded commodity futures, gained 20.1 percent in 2009.

An even more dramatic differential developed between the Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (NYSE Arca: MOO) and the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE Arca: DBA). Last year, MOO's equity portfolio appreciated 57.2 percent, thumping the futures-holding DBA fund, which struggled to a mere 1 percent gain.

It looked like commodity stocks' roll would continue into 2010. And, for a time, it did. At least for the agriculture. The relative strength of agribusiness stocks over commodity futures, however, peaked in April.

Relative Strength: Commodity Stocks Over Commodity Futures

Largely, the futures momentum is attributable to livestock, most particularly lean hogs, which have shot up to new highs for the decade. Backwardation in the livestock sector has enhanced spot returns further.

So is this the signal to shift from equities to futures? In a sense, yes. But not without discrimination. There's a case to be made for potential exhaustion in the livestock sector, while some signs of bottoming are apparent in grains.

We'll examine these two segments in Thursday's Desktop.